The Future of Mortality

The Future of Mortality


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Speaker: Martin Genz

A variety of mortality models can be used to project future mortality. However, the parameters of most of these models lack a clear demographic interpretation. Hence, it may be hard to identify forecasts which are not consistent to the most recent observed trends in the mortality evolution or that are demographically implausible. On the other hand, demographers make predictions on future mortality but typically focus on single aspects only instead of comprehensive mortality forecasts. This article aims to close the gap between these forecasting approaches.

We establish a new best estimate mortality model which is based on the extrapolation of four statistics that have a clear demographic interpretation. The four statistics are taken from the classification framework of Börger et al. (2018). Our model yields forecasts for the deaths curve which are consistent with the most recent demographic trends in the deaths curve evolution. Moreover, expert opinions on future trends in the mortality evolution can easily be incorporated, and we illustrate how the model can be used for scenario analyses.


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