Actuarial Perspectives on World Population Prospects 2019

This paper provides an overall actuarial perspective on the United Nations (UN) World Population Prospects 2019 (WPP2019). WPP2019 presents the latest revision of population projections for the world and for individual countries, groups of countries and regions, summarizing estimates for 1950 to 2019 and projections from 2020 to 2100. This paper aims to inform actuaries around the world about the possible evolution of the world’s population based on the UN report. The paper discusses the methodologies used in WPP2019 and the assumptions underlying the projections. It identifies some areas of particularly great uncertainty that should be considered when using these projections in actuarial work such as developing population projections for applications in individual countries and financial reviews of social security plans. The paper also aims to summarize some of the key features of the results of WPP2019 in a way which will interest and inform actuaries, as well as a wider audience of organizations with which the IAA interacts.