Actuaries Climate Risk Index: Research Update

Actuaries Climate Risk Index: Research Update

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The American Academy of Actuaries (Academy) would be pleased to present Actuaries Climate Risk Index (ACRI): Research Update. The ACRI is derived from a model of the statistical relationship between the weather components of the Actuaries Climate Index (ACI) and property damage caused by severe weather. Severa} years ago, four actuarial organization in North America (the Academy, the Canadian Institute of Actuaries, the Casualty Actuarial Society, and the Society of Actuaries) launched the ACI. The ACI provides an objective indicator of the frequency of extreme weather events and the extent of sea level change for twelve regions in the United States and Canada. Our work on the ACI led us to our work on the ACRI. This paper describes the methods used and results produced for this new index, the ACRI, which measures the economic lasses resulting from changes in environmental conditions since the end of a reference period, 1961 -1990, as measured by the ACI. The ACRI distinguishes the losses due to changes in weather from the larger set of losses due to increases in risk exposure. The resulting ACRI for the United States totals $24 billion during the post-reference period, 1991 -2016, equal to approximately 5% of weather­related losses during that period.

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