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Speaker(s): Brian Ridsdale (IAA Mortality Working Group)
Over the past forty years many countries have seen a consistent trend of improving longevity. Yet in the past few years some countries have experienced a reduction in the rate of improvement, or even a worsening. Recent years' results are often difficult to find, but important because if trends are changing this could have substantial impacts in many areas in society in general as well as in the pricing and reserving for life, pensions and annuities.
The paper will look at recent information about what is happening in areas such as Europe (UK, Southern countries, northern countries), South Africa, Australia and North America. It will look at possible causes and explanations such as effects on socio-economic and other sub-sets of populations, winter mortality, developments in medical treatments, healthcare and health outcomes, behavioural changes and the impact of austerity programmes. And it will consider whether the changes are a "blip" or a changing trend.
It will conclude with some examples of how actuaries are already taking recent changes into account.