Extreme Cyber Losses: An Alternative Approach to Estimating Probable Maximum Loss for Data Breach Ri

Extreme Cyber Losses: An Alternative Approach to Estimating Probable Maximum Loss for Data Breach Ri

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This paper proposes a measure of the probable maximum cyber loss, which stands for the worst cyber loss likely to occur, with an alternative approach to estimating the potential loss size of an extreme event. It shows that the predicted cyber loss likely to occur in the next five years is almost seven times larger than the loss size estimated by the recent literature based on a widely used Pareto model. The findings are important for risk managers, actuaries and policymakers concerned about the enormous cost of the next extreme cyber event.

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