Managing risk and uncertainty at Munich Re

Managing risk and uncertainty at Munich Re

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Speaker: Bernhard Kaufmann

The insurance industry worldwide has faced numerous changes and innovations in recent years. These essentially arise from

  • a changing global risk landscape,
  • digitalisation, big data and automation,
  • new regulatory demands.

 This presentation focusses on the changing risk landscape and deals especially with emerging risks, that arise from globalisation, interconnectedness and new technologies. These emerging risks are characterised by a high degree of uncertainty (low predictability of occurance probability, high complexity) and high loss potential. In order to model, manage and insure these risks, we need to develop new approaches, often of more qualitative rather than quantitative nature. We also need to understand better the connections between different systems (society, politics, technology, nature, economy) and the impact of extreme events on those complex systems. Possible approaches are scenario techniques and the construction of scenario networks based on expert judgement. Further work is required to understand systematic biases in subjective risk estimates and how to include these into quantitative risk models.

Bernhard will present approaches and solutions that insurers are using to prepare for the risks and challenges ahead and looks at how Munich RE in particular is dealing with emerging risks.

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