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Speaker(s): Eberhard Müller (riskmueller consulting)
Modelling natural catastrophes by means of stochastic simulation started in the late 1980s and has become increasingly common since. The degree of details – be it the geographic resolution, the exposure data or the event modelling – has led to an enormous amount of data which suggests that modelling should have improved over time. Nevertheless there is still considerable uncertainty in case of major events which has been demonstrated by nearly every major event in the past two decades