Speaker(s): Carlos Contreras Cruz
As a result of the declining of birth and death rates, which together generate the phenomenon known as demographic transition, it is estimated that in the medium term the proportion of the Mexican population that is 60 years old or more will be of little more of 20%, ie if according to projections of the National Population Council (CONAPO) in 2050 the population is expected to reach 150,837,517 inhabitants, the number of people in the third age would be more than thirty-two million.
On the basis of World Health Organization (WHO) indicators which shows that "countries with less than 23 health care professionals per 10,000 population probably do not reach adequate coverage rates for key care interventions Primary health care "(WHO, 2009) in 2050 Mexico would require approximately 3,243 professionals only to care for the elderly population.
Could Mexico or any other country meet the demand of health care professionals, specifically to serve the population group in old age? This project shows a proposal for a planning model for the training of medical specialists, based on the use of demographic hypotheses related to the incidence and prevalence of diseases and the formation of specialist physicians for care in Old age; and finally uses the bases of the economic theory of supply and demand, applied to health care services