Projection models for health expenses

Projection models for health expenses

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Speaker(s): Jan-Philipp Schmidt (TH Köln)

This paper proposes a practical way for modeling and projecting health insurance expenditures over short time horizons, based on observed historical data. The present study is motivated by a similar age structure generally observed for health insurance claim frequencies and yearly aggregate losses on the one hand and mortality on the other hand. As an application, the approach is illustrated for German historical inpatient costs provided by the Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin). In particular, similarities and differences to mortality modeling are addressed.

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