About 30 years after starting to work on the HIV & AIDS epidemic and model, I had started to write a paper on modelling epidemics and contrasting our experiences in the 1980’s and 1990’s with the current application of data analytics.
By the end of 2019 I had completed several sections of that original paper when the news of Covid-19 was first starting becoming news.
Subsequently during the early part of 2020 I spent a significant amount of time researching and understanding the Covid-19 epidemic, with a particular focus on policy choices.
In so doing I examined the outcomes of many Covid-19 models and also studied many data sources and scientific papers.
This work heightened the contrasts and similarities between modelling HIV & AIDS and Covid-19.
Highlight the need to really understand data before using it.
Highlight the need to really understand the key dynamics of an epidemic before modelling it.
Provides some insight into framing policy choices in the light of serious epidemics and perhaps other complex issues.