Speaker(s): Elena Kulinskaya
Longevity and morbidity risks are of essential importance to the actuarial community.We believe that to be able to establish the drivers of their changes, and to predict how they may change over time and how this would affect life expectancy, researchers need to engage in statistical modelling of mortality experience using large scale population-based individual level data collected over the long term.To determine the main factors affecting longevity and dynamics of their changes, we are using the subset of the THIN primary care database comprising 3.5 million patients born on or before 1960. The work is a part of the IFoA Actuarial Research Centre funded research programme on Use of Big Health and Actuarial Data For Understanding Longevity And Morbidity Risks (2016-2020). The researchers include a multidisciplinary University of East Anglia and Aviva team.
In our previous work (Gitsels et al., 2016), we studied changes in survival of healthy people over the age of 60 due to the prescription of statins, the only known longevity-improving drug in general use. Here, we discuss how these and similar findings on various health interventions may be applied to estimate individual and population period life expectancy changes due to the widening of their uptake.
Gitsels LA, Kulinskaya E, Steel N (2016) Survival Benefits of Statins for Primary Prevention: A Cohort Study. PLoS ONE 11(11): e0166847. DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0166847.