The Impact of Covid-19 on Future Higher-Age Mortality

The Impact of Covid-19 on Future Higher-Age Mortality

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This presentation will look at Covid-19 mortality experience (mainly in the 50+ age group) and what impact this might have on future mortality. We will first look at how Covid-19 mortality experience compares with all-cause mortality using English data once we have allowed for varying infection rates across the population. A key conclusion is that there is a strong proportionality relationship between Covid-19 death rates and all-cause mortality by age and by socio-economic group (e.g. by deprivation). What we then observe as higher death rates in specific groups can then mainly be attributable to variations in infection rates (e.g. regional or socio-economic variation). Second, we will look at the future mortality prospects for those who survive the pandemic. A simple model will be presented that allows us to explore this question. In the absence of secondary effects of the pandemic, survivors are likely to be healthier than the pre-pandemic population, with a corresponding small increase in life expectancies. However, further adjustments will need to be made when we begin to quantify the secondary impacts of Covid including long-term impairments ("long Covid") and the impact of delayed treatments for other illnesses such as cancers

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