The Webinar will provide insight into managing your practice in this new environment of Pandemic and Lockdown including how to market your services, communications with current and prospective clients, cyber risk for the smaller organization, Human Resour
Typically, business forecasts are heavily dependent on statistics. While statistics are reliable in many circumstances, statistical forecasting does not capture the dynamics of complex environments because one of its key assumptions—that historical
The actuarial profession has a keen interest in the use of data science and has used various regression techniques for many years for predictive modelling and other precursors to modern data science. In this webinar, Bob Miccolis and Ashleigh Theophanides
Further Links:David Wilkie - SlidesDavid Wilkie - Actuarial ModelStuart Mcdonald - Slides
The implementation of Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) in the financial sector, insurance . in particular, has gained increasing attention in recent years. However, the majority of studies used financial data and overlooked the non-performance of the comp
The insurance industry are embracing innovation and technology where are not only Millennials and Generation Y customers accounted for the majority of online insurance sales. The InsurTech is breaking the paradigms affecting the insurance market by introd
Investors can experience behaviors that usually are seen entirely irrational from the classical economic principles. The focus of this research is to generate formative or reflective behavioral constructs, which helps to measure the economic effects of in
(The presentation is held in french) The ongoing 4th industrial revolution already opened fantastic opportunities for Cyber crime, from the emergence of the Internet in the 80’s to the day-to-day reliance of both individuals and companies on cloud s
- How should you invest your pension plan savings, if you want to reach a desired level ofincome? We show the distribution of your possible retirement income under differentinvestment strategies.- Each strategy is derived from the optimization of a functi
The goal of this paper is to jointly model the development of individual daim payments and daims incurred. Our analysis only focuses on the development of the so-called Reported But Not Settled (RBNS) daims. We develop regression models and postulate dist
This paper proposes a measure of the probable maximum cyber loss, which stands for the worst cyber loss likely to occur, with an alternative approach to estimating the potential loss size of an extreme event. It shows that the predicted cyber loss likely
Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a statistical learning technique to select and calibrate models in an automated fashion using the data at hand. It consists in simulating synthetic data from the potential models and assessing the distance between
Each pension fund board of trustees decides on type and amount of death and disability risk coverage. At first step in pension fund specific risk analysis, the full coverage of death and disability risks by the pension fund itself is analyzed. According t
Following innovations in machine learning and computational statistics, a large variety of new modeling techniques are being applied to premium rating. In order to carry out model comparison and selection in this regime it is particularly valuable to deve
Prediction of the evolution of a claim is a challenging problem in insurance, especiallyfor guarantees associated with high volatility of the cost such as third-party insurance.Identifying, soon after occurrence, the claims that require more attention, is
In non-life insurance, the payment history can be predictive of the timing of a settlement for individual claims. Ignoring the association between the payment process and the settlement process could bias the prediction of outstanding payments. To address
The new rules set forth by IFRS 17 not only imply a fundamental overhaul of insurance accounting, but also, the reengineering of actuarial and accounting processes within an insurance company. In fact, a few insurers will opt to transform their operating
Under IFRS and US GAAP accounting standards, employers must disclose the gap between their plan assets and liabilities on the company’s own balance sheet as well as the corresponding impact on the company’s profit and loss (P&L) account. T
This paper reviews the current design of the Solvency II risk margin. The current aim of the risk margin is to provide a quantification of the hypothetical cost a third party would expect to charge (in addition to the Solvency II 'best estimate liability'
Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) were invented in 2014 and have generated more interest since then. GANs are useful for learning the structure of the data without explicitly postulating the model. They are better than other generative models, used f
According to the FRP5 Guidelines of the Swiss Chamber of pension fund experts (SKPE) the threshold portfolio return corresponds to the annual portfolio return which the pension fund requires to keep the funding ratio constant. The difference between the e
In recent years, one of the most critical tasks for actuaries is to adopt data science techniques in predictive modeling practice. However, due to the peculiarity of insurance data as well as the priorities taken by actuaries in decision-making, such as t
In this work, we propose a methodology to predict the total cost of a natural catastrophe shortly after itsoccurrence. Thanks to a large database provided through a partnership with Federation Francaise d'Assurance,we manage to have access to a very la
In this talk, we present a two-player extraction game where the random terminal times follow (different) heavy-tailed distributions which are not necessari!y compactly supported. Besides, we de!ve on the implications of working with logarithmic utility/te
The volume of digital data is increasing by around 61 % annually. The rapidly developing techniques of predictive analytics make it possible to use this data in underwriting and pricing of insurers. These novel technologies present huge opportunities for
Many countries in Latin America are experiencing large social trouble and budget crisis on account the pension program, independently of the consideration of Defined Benefits or Defined Contributions. After the past 35 years of SS reforms in pension, diff
Dans un contexte économique et réglementaire en perpétuelle mouvance, le pilotage ALM de l’assureur vie doit nécessairement faire intervenir une optimisation de la structure de son passif.A cette fin, cette contribution p
In recent years, managing longevity risk, the risk of outliving one's wealth, is a very important issue for a household in retirement. Hibiki and Oya(2015) show that this risk can be hedged by combining private life pension and public pension. However, pr
The establishment and development of technologies as support tools in social security terms provide a way that would improve to 30% of Mexican population increase the amount of their voluntary contributions and many others would accede into the pension sy
In 2019, Alibaba reinvents healthcare thanks to a P2P insurance model which has been a huge commercial success with more than 100 million users in China.Despite commercial failures of most P2P models (B2C) attempts in Europe, Alibaba proves that P2P model
The paper summarises the main features and trends in pension fund ESG risks disclosure around the world available to regulators, members and the public. It includes reference to statutory requirements, general practice and voluntary disclosures in relatio
In insurance and even more in reinsurance it occurs that about a risk you only know that it has suffered no losses in the past say seven years. Some of these risks are furthermore such particular or novel that there are no similar risks to infer the loss
Long term disability income (DI) claims account for a significant portion of life insurance companies' risk product liabilities. The annuity type benefits offered by these products, typically paid until a policyholder reaches retirement age, dies or retur
We study the relation between one-year premium risk and ultimate premium risk. In practice, the one-year risk is sometimes related to the ultimate risk by using a so-called emergence pattern formula introduced by England et al. (2012) and Bird, Cairns (20
The submission would be 5-7 five minute plays enacting the interaction of classical character types in an actuarial or professional context highlighting ethical issues by young actuarial students in University College Dublin. One example of the plays woul
In the aftermath of IBOR scandals and due to a decrease on volume of transactions associated to interest rate indexes, regulators required a transition to new reference rates. In Europe, European Parliament and Council of the European Union adopted The Be
Deep Learning models are currently being introduced into business processes to support decision-making in insurance companies. At the same time model risk is recognized as an increasingly relevant field within the management of operational rlsk that tries
Among the several features of cyber-attacks one wants to reproduce, those related to the memory of events and self-exciting behavior is of major importance, as it underlies the clustering and auto-correlation of times of cyber-attacks. In this paper, we p
One of the first in the actuariat literature published agent based models (ABM) is by Ingram et al. The paper describes a model of a competitive (insurance) market that shows cyclical behavior. The authors put their focus on the model’s theoretic fo
Retirement patterns are changing. Most working people are forced to postpone retirement - and retreat from employment slowly. Pension drawings are needed, initialiy, as top-ups to supplement employment income and then increase as retirement completes. In
The cost of the risk of work stoppage has been rising for a number of years. This increase is explained in particular by psychosocial risks. This article models the rate of prescription of work stoppages thanks to a model whose fundamentals are identical
This presentation focuses on the problem of moral hazard in health insurance. We introduce our solution by explaining how we have modelled the behaviour of supplementary health insurance policyholders within a context of moral hazard and build an Optimal
In this paper we propose an actuarial framework and a statistical methodology allowing the quantification of Cyber claims resulting from data breaches events even when applied on few and heterogeneous data. Indeed, for now, just a few Cyber insurance clai
The French Social Security has highlighted psychiatric diseases as a major risk. However, French private health insurance companies do not consider psychiatric care as an important topic. In this article is presented a study (based on four real health ins
In this paper, we develop stochastic models to determine the impact of a massive cyber attack on an insurance portfolio. The model is based on the classical SIR framework (Susceptible - Infected - Recovered) of epidemiological models. For a given type of
Multi-country mortality dependence attracts the attention of insurers owning life insurance or annuity businesses across countries. When implementing a sophisticated enterprise risk management (ERM) program, it is crucial to model the structure of such de
The wavelet theory is a powerful tool for processing and compressing time-series or images. To summarize, the wavelet transform consists to project a signal on an orthornormal basis of functions. The sets of functions is chosen in order to provide a spars
Founded in 1895, and reformed in 1998 with a new constitution, the International Actuarial Association (IAA) is the worldwide association of professional actuarial associations, with a number of special interest sections for individual actuaries. The IAA exists to encourage the development of a global profession, acknowledged as technically competent and professionally reliable, which will ensure that the public interest is served.
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