Videos from IAASections
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Strategic Modelling and Scenario Planning
Added 0 91 ViewsTypically, business forecasts are heavily dependent on statistics. While statistics are reliable in many circumstances, statistical forecasting does not capture the dynamics of complex environments because one of its key assumptions—that historical
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Current Views about Professionalism in the Use of Big Data
Added 0 113 ViewsThe actuarial profession has a keen interest in the use of data science and has used various regression techniques for many years for predictive modelling and other precursors to modern data science. In this webinar, Bob Miccolis and Ashleigh Theophanides
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COVID-19 Actuarial Modelling
Added 1 742 ViewsFurther Links:David Wilkie - SlidesDavid Wilkie - Actuarial ModelStuart Mcdonald - Slides
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IACA Live Session: The Power of Diversity of Thought - Next Chapter
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IAALS Live Session
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PBSS Live Session on Pension & Social Insurance
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IAAHS Live Session on COVID-19
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ASTIN Live Session on Data Anomalies & Costumer Behaviour
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AFIR-ERM Live Session on Artificial Intelligence
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In Measuring the Value Creation by Enterprise Risk Management for Insurance Companies: Does ESG (eco
Added 0 120 ViewsThe implementation of Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) in the financial sector, insurance . in particular, has gained increasing attention in recent years. However, the majority of studies used financial data and overlooked the non-performance of the comp
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The Effect of Disruption in Insurance Industry: Instant Policy Pricing and Cyber Risk Evaluation
Added 0 97 ViewsThe insurance industry are embracing innovation and technology where are not only Millennials and Generation Y customers accounted for the majority of online insurance sales. The InsurTech is breaking the paradigms affecting the insurance market by introd
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Analysis and Evaluation of the Mexican Market Behaviour, its Investors & its Most Relevant Companies
Added 1 164 ViewsInvestors can experience behaviors that usually are seen entirely irrational from the classical economic principles. The focus of this research is to generate formative or reflective behavioral constructs, which helps to measure the economic effects of in
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Cyber Risk: The Responsibility of the Actuary in Setting up Individual, Collective and Coordinated P
Added 0 96 Views(The presentation is held in french) The ongoing 4th industrial revolution already opened fantastic opportunities for Cyber crime, from the emergence of the Internet in the 80’s to the day-to-day reliance of both individuals and companies on cloud s
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Aligning Retirement Goals and Outcomes
Added 1 86 Views- How should you invest your pension plan savings, if you want to reach a desired level ofincome? We show the distribution of your possible retirement income under differentinvestment strategies.- Each strategy is derived from the optimization of a functi
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Insurance and Consulting in Emerging Market-CIS Countries
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Regression Models for the Joint Development of Individual Payments and Claims Incurred
Added 1 111 ViewsThe goal of this paper is to jointly model the development of individual daim payments and daims incurred. Our analysis only focuses on the development of the so-called Reported But Not Settled (RBNS) daims. We develop regression models and postulate dist
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Developing a Counter-Cyclical Risk Measure
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Extreme Cyber Losses: An Alternative Approach to Estimating Probable Maximum Loss for Data Breach Ri
Added 0 120 ViewsThis paper proposes a measure of the probable maximum cyber loss, which stands for the worst cyber loss likely to occur, with an alternative approach to estimating the potential loss size of an extreme event. It shows that the predicted cyber loss likely
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Approximate Bayesian Computation to Handle Aggregated Insurance Data
Added 0 94 ViewsApproximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a statistical learning technique to select and calibrate models in an automated fashion using the data at hand. It consists in simulating synthetic data from the potential models and assessing the distance between
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Risk Analysis of Active Membership in Relation to Death and Disability Risk Coverage
Added 1 95 ViewsEach pension fund board of trustees decides on type and amount of death and disability risk coverage. At first step in pension fund specific risk analysis, the full coverage of death and disability risks by the pension fund itself is analyzed. According t
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Measuring the Value of Risk Cost Models
Added 0 114 ViewsFollowing innovations in machine learning and computational statistics, a large variety of new modeling techniques are being applied to premium rating. In order to carry out model comparison and selection in this regime it is particularly valuable to deve
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How to Improve the Performance of a Neural Network With Unbalanced Data for Text Classification in I
Added 0 84 ViewsPrediction of the evolution of a claim is a challenging problem in insurance, especiallyfor guarantees associated with high volatility of the cost such as third-party insurance.Identifying, soon after occurrence, the claims that require more attention, is
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Joint Model Prediction and Application to Individual-level Loss Reserving
Added 0 143 ViewsIn non-life insurance, the payment history can be predictive of the timing of a settlement for individual claims. Ignoring the association between the payment process and the settlement process could bias the prediction of outstanding payments. To address
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The Scourge of the Indies : Tropical Depressions, Storms, & Hurricanes.
Added 0 165 ViewsClimate change through its devastating effects is a concern for everyone and, more broadly, insurers are in the front line to understand this risk with statistical tools applied to physical phenomena, the data of which are becoming widely available thanks
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Adoption of IFRS 17 in Emerging and Frontier Insurance Markets. An Actuarial Perspective
Added 2 171 ViewsThe new rules set forth by IFRS 17 not only imply a fundamental overhaul of insurance accounting, but also, the reengineering of actuarial and accounting processes within an insurance company. In fact, a few insurers will opt to transform their operating
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Pension Accounting: Forecasts for the Company's Own Balance Sheet as Well as Profit and Loss Account
Added 1 93 ViewsUnder IFRS and US GAAP accounting standards, employers must disclose the gap between their plan assets and liabilities on the company’s own balance sheet as well as the corresponding impact on the company’s profit and loss (P&L) account. T
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A Review of the Solvency II Risk Margin
Added 1 147 ViewsThis paper reviews the current design of the Solvency II risk margin. The current aim of the risk margin is to provide a quantification of the hypothetical cost a third party would expect to charge (in addition to the Solvency II 'best estimate liability'
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Generative Adversarial Networks for Actuarial Use
Added 1 176 ViewsGenerative Adversarial Networks (GANs) were invented in 2014 and have generated more interest since then. GANs are useful for learning the structure of the data without explicitly postulating the model. They are better than other generative models, used f
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Threshold Portfolio Return for Swiss Pension Funds Based on Nested Stochastic Modelling
Added 1 119 ViewsAccording to the FRP5 Guidelines of the Swiss Chamber of pension fund experts (SKPE) the threshold portfolio return corresponds to the annual portfolio return which the pension fund requires to keep the funding ratio constant. The difference between the e
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AGLM: A Hybrid Modeling Method of GLM and Data Science Techniques
Added 2 292 ViewsIn recent years, one of the most critical tasks for actuaries is to adopt data science techniques in predictive modeling practice. However, due to the peculiarity of insurance data as well as the priorities taken by actuaries in decision-making, such as t
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Application of Machine Learning Methods for Cost Prediction of Natural Hazard in France
Added 0 98 ViewsIn this work, we propose a methodology to predict the total cost of a natural catastrophe shortly after itsoccurrence. Thanks to a large database provided through a partnership with Federation Francaise d'Assurance,we manage to have access to a very la
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The Great Pension Debate: Finding Common Ground
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Resource Exploitation in a Stochastic Horizon Under Two Parametrics Interpretations
Added 1 83 ViewsIn this talk, we present a two-player extraction game where the random terminal times follow (different) heavy-tailed distributions which are not necessari!y compactly supported. Besides, we de!ve on the implications of working with logarithmic utility/te
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Social Inclusion in the World of Modern Predictive Analytics
Added 0 144 ViewsThe volume of digital data is increasing by around 61 % annually. The rapidly developing techniques of predictive analytics make it possible to use this data in underwriting and pricing of insurers. These novel technologies present huge opportunities for
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Actuarial Practice Experience in Social Security Reform and Crisis Management
Added 1 115 ViewsMany countries in Latin America are experiencing large social trouble and budget crisis on account the pension program, independently of the consideration of Defined Benefits or Defined Contributions. After the past 35 years of SS reforms in pension, diff
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Machine Learning: Quelles Opportunités de Pilotage ALM pour un Assureur Vie?
Added 0 173 ViewsDans un contexte économique et réglementaire en perpétuelle mouvance, le pilotage ALM de l’assureur vie doit nécessairement faire intervenir une optimisation de la structure de son passif.A cette fin, cette contribution p
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Deferred Public Pension and Longevity Risk for a Household in Retirement
Added 1 81 ViewsIn recent years, managing longevity risk, the risk of outliving one's wealth, is a very important issue for a household in retirement. Hibiki and Oya(2015) show that this risk can be hedged by combining private life pension and public pension. However, pr
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Digitalization of Pension System in Mexico: Benefits and Implications
Added 0 101 ViewsThe establishment and development of technologies as support tools in social security terms provide a way that would improve to 30% of Mexican population increase the amount of their voluntary contributions and many others would accede into the pension sy
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Will P2P Insurance Replace Traditional Insurance?
Added 0 148 ViewsIn 2019, Alibaba reinvents healthcare thanks to a P2P insurance model which has been a huge commercial success with more than 100 million users in China.Despite commercial failures of most P2P models (B2C) attempts in Europe, Alibaba proves that P2P model
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Global Developments in Pension Fund ESG Disclosures → What Pension Actuaries Need to Know
Added 0 255 ViewsThe paper summarises the main features and trends in pension fund ESG risks disclosure around the world available to regulators, members and the public. It includes reference to statutory requirements, general practice and voluntary disclosures in relatio
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Premium Rating Without Losses – How to Estimate the Loss Frequency of Loss-free Risks
Added 3 201 ViewsIn insurance and even more in reinsurance it occurs that about a risk you only know that it has suffered no losses in the past say seven years. Some of these risks are furthermore such particular or novel that there are no similar risks to infer the loss
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Disability Income Claimant Rehabilitation and other Claim Interventions
Added 0 87 ViewsLong term disability income (DI) claims account for a significant portion of life insurance companies' risk product liabilities. The annuity type benefits offered by these products, typically paid until a policyholder reaches retirement age, dies or retur
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One-year Premium Risk and Emergence Pattern of Ultimate Loss Based on Conditional Distribution
Added 2 109 ViewsWe study the relation between one-year premium risk and ultimate premium risk. In practice, the one-year risk is sometimes related to the ultimate risk by using a so-called emergence pattern formula introduced by England et al. (2012) and Bird, Cairns (20
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Ethical Perspectives of the Actuaries of the Future
Added 0 234 ViewsThe submission would be 5-7 five minute plays enacting the interaction of classical character types in an actuarial or professional context highlighting ethical issues by young actuarial students in University College Dublin. One example of the plays woul
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Consequences of IBOR Reform on Insurance Sector
Added 1 109 ViewsIn the aftermath of IBOR scandals and due to a decrease on volume of transactions associated to interest rate indexes, regulators required a transition to new reference rates. In Europe, European Parliament and Council of the European Union adopted The Be
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Instruction on Character Formation in the Ethical Education of Actuaries
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Believing the Bot - Model Risk in the Era of Deep Learning
Added 0 96 ViewsDeep Learning models are currently being introduced into business processes to support decision-making in insurance companies. At the same time model risk is recognized as an increasingly relevant field within the management of operational rlsk that tries
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The IAIS Global Frameworks for Supervision of IAIGs Including ComFrame, ICS 2.0 and the Holistic Fra
Added 0 108 ViewsIn November 2019, the International Association of Insurance Supervisors adopted a Global Framework for the Supervision of Internationally Active Insurance Groups (IAIGs). This includes revisions to ComFrame including the Insurance Core Principles (ICPs),
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Multivariate Hawkes Process for Cyber Risk Insurance
Added 0 104 ViewsAmong the several features of cyber-attacks one wants to reproduce, those related to the memory of events and self-exciting behavior is of major importance, as it underlies the clustering and auto-correlation of times of cyber-attacks. In this paper, we p
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Agent Based Models: Dynamics, Stochastics and Rule Based Decisions - A Model Study
Added 0 79 ViewsOne of the first in the actuariat literature published agent based models (ABM) is by Ingram et al. The paper describes a model of a competitive (insurance) market that shows cyclical behavior. The authors put their focus on the model’s theoretic fo
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Pension Schemes Do not Deliver the Amounts Needed When They Are Needed. Can Actuaries Solve this Pro
Added 1 121 ViewsRetirement patterns are changing. Most working people are forced to postpone retirement - and retreat from employment slowly. Pension drawings are needed, initialiy, as top-ups to supplement employment income and then increase as retirement completes. In
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Prospective Modelling of Temporary Disability Risk: Proposal for a Two-dimensional Model and Machine
Added 1 316 ViewsThe cost of the risk of work stoppage has been rising for a number of years. This increase is explained in particular by psychosocial risks. This article models the rate of prescription of work stoppages thanks to a model whose fundamentals are identical
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Current Situation and Future Issues of Corporate Pension in Japan
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Moral Hazard in Supplementary Health Insurance: Modelling of the Insured's Behaviour and the Optimal
Added 0 205 ViewsThis presentation focuses on the problem of moral hazard in health insurance. We introduce our solution by explaining how we have modelled the behaviour of supplementary health insurance policyholders within a context of moral hazard and build an Optimal
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How Can We Quantify Cyber Risk Based on Heterogenous and Volatile Data?
Added 0 86 ViewsIn this paper we propose an actuarial framework and a statistical methodology allowing the quantification of Cyber claims resulting from data breaches events even when applied on few and heterogeneous data. Indeed, for now, just a few Cyber insurance clai
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La psychiatrie : un risque important en assurance santé ?
Added 0 88 ViewsThe French Social Security has highlighted psychiatric diseases as a major risk. However, French private health insurance companies do not consider psychiatric care as an important topic. In this article is presented a study (based on four real health ins
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Accumulation Scenarios for Cyber Insurance Based on Epidemiological Models
Added 1 116 ViewsIn this paper, we develop stochastic models to determine the impact of a massive cyber attack on an insurance portfolio. The model is based on the classical SIR framework (Susceptible - Infected - Recovered) of epidemiological models. For a given type of
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Modeling Multi-Country Mortality Dependence by a Vine Copula
Added 2 461 ViewsMulti-country mortality dependence attracts the attention of insurers owning life insurance or annuity businesses across countries. When implementing a sophisticated enterprise risk management (ERM) program, it is crucial to model the structure of such de
About
Founded in 1895, and reformed in 1998 with a new constitution, the International Actuarial Association (IAA) is the worldwide association of professional actuarial associations, with a number of special interest sections for individual actuaries. The IAA exists to encourage the development of a global profession, acknowledged as technically competent and professionally reliable, which will ensure that the public interest is served.
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