What do the Actuaries of the Future Think Actuaries Could Be Doing in the Future

The research used actuarial techniques and historical commodity price data to synthetically create new historical investment return data going back 200-750 years - mostly based on data from the US, England and the EU. The research produced a surprising result - that equities may not be the investment class with the highest historical investment returns. The research also enabled comparison of investment risk over very long periods of time - both in relation to variance and skew - again showing surprising results. The research will be of interest to actuaries involved in asset-liability modelling and it presents a potential challenge to accepted wisdom in the investment industry. The implications of the results are discussed from a variety of perspectives, including that of a pensions actuary, but also from a more general investment perspective. Furthermore, the results are presented in light of the prolonged Quantitative Easing monetary policies enacted by the major central banks around the world. A possible hedge to potential downsides risks arising from this form of monetary policy is also discussed.