Incorporation of Temperature-Related Factors in Mortality Risk Modeling
The relationship between temperature and mortality change is becoming particularly important in the context of climate change. The increase in the number of heat waves but also of extreme cold and their more frequent occurrence contributes strongly to this awareness.
The study carried out in the framework of this thesis examines the integration of temperature-related factors in the context of mortality risk modelling. Consequently, the question that cannot be avoided, once these factors have been defined and integrated, is the impact of climate fluctuations on mortality. In other words, what is the level of annual excess mortality that could be expected in a more or less distant time horizon taking into consideration the current evolution of global surface temperatures?
The first mortality model integrating temperature-related factors is presented and analyzed with respect to the satisfaction criteria of a stochastic mortality model. Subsequently, we propose a derived version of this model that aimed at responding to the simulation exercise of the impact of climate change on mortality, while highlighting the limitations encountered and the solutions envisaged to address them.