For nearly ten years, the EAA has offered a seminar, entitled “Stochastic Modelling – Theory and Reality from an Actuarial Perspective,” addressing the use of stochastic modelling in actuarial models. In that seminar, participants learn to develop and calibrate stochastic models of mortality. The present web session “Stochastic Modelling of Mortality with Special Focus on Pandemic Risk” introduces and expands upon the stochastic mortality models discussed in the live seminar.

The web session will assess the impact COVID-19 has had on population mortality, how COVID-19 fits into the historical context of pandemics, and what adjustments actuaries may wish to consider for their stochastic mortality models based on lessons learned from COVID-19. The web session will also explore certain epidemiological models, including a stochastic component, and how epidemiological models can interact with stochastic mortality models.