Media Term Structure Modeling under Volatility Uncertainty

Term Structure Modeling under Volatility Uncertainty

uploaded August 25, 2021 Views: 99 Comments: 0 Favorite: 0 CPD
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In this talk, we study term structure movements in the spirit of Heath, Jarrow, and Morton [Econometrica 60(1), 77-105] under volatility uncertainty. We model the instantaneous forward rate as a diffusion process driven by a G-Brownian motion. The G-Brownian motion represents the uncertainty about the volatility. Within this framework, we derive a sufficient condition for the absence of arbitrage, known as the drift condition. In contrast to the traditional model, the drift condition consists of several equations and several market prices, termed market price of risk and market prices of uncertainty, respectively. The drift condition is still consistent with the classical one if there is no volatility uncertainty. Similar to the traditional model, the risk-neutral dynamics of the forward rate are completely determined by its diffusion term. We obtain robust versions of classical term structure models as examples in this framework. Furthermore, we discuss the pricing of interest rate derivatives in this setting.

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Categories: BANKING / FINANCE
Content groups:  content2021

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