This webinar, we will focus on the investment aspect during COVID-19. The presentation will consist of the following two parts:

1. Limitations of the financial projection models during COVID-19

How accurately were insurance companies' financial projection models able to predict the impact of COVID-19? What are the constraints of these models and considerations for model improvements? This webinar demonstrates that financial projection models during COVID-19 are better suited to the Skew Laplace distribution for predicting stock returns than the Normal distribution. An introduction to a prediction model using this distribution will be presented.

2. A Study on Regime Shift in Major Stock Markets during COVID-19

The global economy demonstrated strong resilience against COVID-19 and achieved a faster recovery than typical predictions. Applying a methodology introduced at ICA2023, we analyse major stock indices, the US S&P, European STOXX, and Japanese TOPIX, and identify four typical regimes for the recovery process during COVID-19.

Furthermore, each index will be examined across different sectors to classify them into four categories based on resilience: resistance and recovery characteristics.